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NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Nov 28 (Reuters) - It is rare that U.S. corn supplies build in a marketing year while soybean supplies slip, but that is exactly what is happening in 2023-24, keeping soybean prices relatively elevated versus corn. The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegs total U.S. corn supplies in 2023-24 to rise 10% on the year, while soybean inventory is seen shrinking 3%. U.S. corn versus soybean supply: Year-on-yearThe 2007-08 rise in corn and fall in soybean supplies was policy-driven, and the only other recent, directionally similar year was 2003-04, when the U.S. soybean crop fell victim to rare, widespread pest issues as well as dry weather. USDA’s long-term projections issued earlier this month suggest just that, pegging 2024 U.S. corn acres at 91 million and soybeans at 87 million versus 83.6 million in 2023. Interestingly, USDA in the couple of years leading up to 2007-08 had also overestimated U.S. soybean acres in March and undershot corn.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Agriculture, USDA, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, North Dakota

The trade’s idea of corn yield lines up with past similar years. Other than 2023, the last three times that soybean yields fell in August, September and October were 2008, 2003 and 1999. Crop Watch results generally support these predictions since the 11-field soybean yield ended up close to the season’s lowest score while corn yields bounced a bit at the end. It has been 15 years since the agency lowered Brazil’s soy crop between October and November. 2024Without severe crop losses in Brazil’s soy or corn this year, U.S. supplies, especially corn, could balloon in 2024-25.

Persons: USDA’s, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, South, Reuters, SOUTH AMERICA, Consultancy, USDA, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, USDA, Mato Grosso, Argentina

Three of the 11 Crop Watch producers increased their corn yield expectations this week, the most notable coming in eastern Iowa. A 3.77 for average Crop Watch corn yield is still below what was expected in July and August, and it would land above the 2022 yield but below that of 2021. Producers in Indiana and western Iowa also increased their Crop Watch corn expectations this week based on results from other fields. Final Crop Watch soybean yield for 2023 is likely to end at 3.5, up from 3.48 a week earlier. Only five of the 22 Crop Watch fields have yet to be touched, all corn: Both Dakotas, western Iowa, Indiana and Ohio.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: . Crop Watch, Crop Watch, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Crop Watch producers reported quick harvest progress in the first week of October, and soybeans were the prime beneficiary as many areas are close to wrapping up those efforts. Five Crop Watch soybean fields were harvested between last Monday and Sunday, three with slightly better than expected results and two with notably worse ones. Just two Crop Watch soybean fields await harvest: Ohio and North Dakota. Average Crop Watch corn yield remains unchanged at 3.61, and there were no adjustments to any individual scores this week. Only four of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields have been harvested as of Monday morning, and the most recent one was completed on Sept. 29.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop Watch, Nebraska and, Crop, Crop Watch, Watch, South Dakota, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Ohio, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nebraska and South Dakota, South Dakota, South, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Crop Watch farmers in western Iowa, Kansas and southeastern Illinois reported fast harvest efforts last week. The Minnesota and eastern Iowa soybeans are in progress as of Monday, and the South Dakota soybeans could also be started on Monday. So far, the Crop Watch harvest is faster than a year ago but slightly slower than two years ago. The producer cites the longer-season variety of beans planted in the Crop Watch field that were able to take in late-season moisture. Crop Watch 2023 ProducersPhotos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my X feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: pinto, Karen Braun, Marguerita Choy, 「 Organizations: . Crop Watch, Nebraska, Crop, Crop Watch, Reuters, 「 Reuters Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa , Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, North, South Dakota , Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, Ohio, The, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

However, most Crop Watch fields no longer benefit from rain as far as yield is concerned. Most Crop Watch producers have either not yet started corn or bean harvesting or are in the beginning stages. About 30% of the Crop Watch corn in southeast Illinois was completed on Sunday, and the early results would suggest downside to yield expectations rather than upside. Average Crop Watch soybean yield rose slightly to 3.59 from 3.57 a week earlier after a quarter-point bump in North Dakota. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: corn's, Karen Braun, David Evans Organizations: Crop, Crop Watch, U.S, Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Final Crop Watch soy yield across the Iowa and Illinois locations averaged 4.625 in 2021 and 4.375 in 2022. CORNThe 11-field, average Crop Watch corn yield fell to a season-low of 3.61 from 3.7 last week, an equal decline as in the previous two weeks. Crop Watch corn yield was 3.68 this week last year and 3.82 in 2021. Six of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields carry a yield score of 4 or better with a high of 4.5 in Ohio. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Dane Rhys Acquire, Karen Braun, Aurora Ellis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Crop Watch, Crop, Iowa, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Deerfield , Ohio, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa, Illinois, Corn, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Ohio . North Dakota , Nebraska, Ohio . Minnesota, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

None of the 22 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields received rain last week, the first such instance since the 22-field format began in 2021. Many of the Crop Watch producers describe this year’s finishing weather as the worst they can remember. The average Crop Watch corn yield also hit a season low this week, falling to 3.7 from 3.8 a week earlier. Eastern Iowa corn was reduced by half a point while western Iowa and Indiana corn were each down by a quarter of a point. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Daniel Acker, Karen Braun, David Goodman Organizations: Ruff, REUTERS, Rights, Crop, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Leonore , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, Indiana, Eastern Iowa, North Dakota, Corn, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana , South Dakota, Both Minnesota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsAn increase in gross corn shorts was the dominant theme for a third consecutive week, though funds also cut longs in the latest two weeks. Most-active CBOT corn futures had dropped 4.7% in the week ended Aug. 15. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsOpen interest in CBOT corn and soybean futures and options has not fluctuated much in the last couple of months. But open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options has surged 29% over the last seven weeks, directionally seasonal but more than double the recent average rate during the period. Most-active corn futures on Wednesday had hit their lowest levels since Dec. 31, 2020, though soybeans on Friday traded to their highest levels since July 31.

Persons: Daniel Acker, bearishness, ’ bullish, Wheat, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois

But the Crop Watch producers are concerned that this heat could challenge the corn in particular as it continues to fill out kernels. Indiana picked up 2.5 inches last week, western Illinois 2.45 inches, Nebraska up to 1.4 inches, and South Dakota got 1 inch. That ties two other weeks out of the last six for the highest Crop Watch soybean yield prospects of the season so far. Crop Watch producers continue rating both crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Crop Watch, Indiana, South Dakota, Southeastern, . Minnesota, Watch, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Gideon , Missouri, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Nebraska, South, Southeastern Illinois, North Dakota, Ohio, ., Minnesota, South Dakota, government’s, North Dakota , Nebraska, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields were stressed last week under mostly dry conditions, but multiple rounds of rain over the weekend prevented yield expectations from declining. Last week’s Crop Watch rain totals were mostly concentrated over the weekend, though not all areas received the needed soaking. More than 3 inches of rain were observed in South Dakota, Nebraska, western Iowa and western Illinois, and Indiana picked up 2 inches. For example, the western Iowa producer this week described his beans as phenomenal while the Ohio field was said to look incredible. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.

Persons: Dane Rhys, dews, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Crop, Crop Watch, Producers, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ravenna , Ohio, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, North Dakota, South Dakota , Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio , Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota , Nebraska, government’s, Ohio, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields took a relatively large hit over the last week amid hot, humid weather accompanied by scarce rainfall. SCORE REDUCTIONSThe 11-field, average Crop Watch corn condition fell to 3.95 from 4.16 last week, the largest weekly cut in eight weeks. Average Crop Watch corn yield potential fell to 3.84 from 4.02 last week, also slightly lower than at the same point in the last two years. Crop Watch producers have been rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop, Crop Watch, Watch, Illinois, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, North, South Dakota, Nebraska , Kansas, Illinois, Southeastern Illinois, North Dakota, Kansas, South Dakota , Nebraska, Minnesota , Nebraska, Nebraska . Western Illinois, Nebraska, government’s, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Commodity markets closely follow the American (GFS) and the European (EC) weather models, and it is important to understand their variations, especially at this time of year. The four-times-daily GFS forecasts out 15 days while the twice-per-day EC evaluates a 10-day period. Both models’ precipitation output has deviated significantly enough from the actuals to warrant higher levels of uncertainty in precipitation forecasts versus temperature ones. Both the GFS and EC precipitation output for the first half of July was overly optimistic on precipitation, which has generally been the case for the past six months. Despite the GFS’s recent temperature reliability, it has more often leaned too cool versus too warm in the last couple of months.

Persons: Tuesday’s GFS, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: European, Midwest, EC, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Midwest, U.S

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 24 (Reuters) - Crop Watch condition scores have somewhat steadied after rising for three straight weeks as the latest week’s dry weather was offset by cooler temperatures. CONDITIONS AND YIELDIn the latest week, corn condition and yield contracted slightly while soybean condition edged upward, and soy yield stayed unchanged. Crop Watch producers have been rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. WEATHEROhio was the wettest Crop Watch location last week with around 2.75 inches of rain in two events, one with some damaging hail. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop Watch, Producers, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, The Ohio, North Dakota, government’s, Eastern Iowa, Illinois, South Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields rose again last week as seasonably cool temperatures dominated, outweighing some of the underwhelming rainfall totals in western areas. Cool weather should dominate this week, favorable for corn pollination, which is currently under way in at least seven of the 11 corn fields. Average corn yield starts at 3.95 versus 4.07 in the same week last year and 3.86 in the same week in 2021. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: ’, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop, U.S . Department of, Crop, Indiana, The North, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota, South Dakota , Kansas, Nebraska , Kansas, The, The North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Nine of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields should be tasseling within the next 10 days or so. Although cool July weather generally supports big crop yields, a couple of the Crop Watch producers mentioned that their fields could benefit from some heat and sun. The weekly increase was Crop Watch corn’s largest since late June 2021, when much-needed rain finally fell in the central Corn Belt. Soybean conditions jumped to 4.05 from 3.73 in the prior week, Crop Watch beans’ biggest-ever weekly improvement but similar to that same week in June 2021. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop, Crop Watch, U.S . Department of, Watch, Southeastern Illinois, Nebraska, South, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ohio, North Dakota, Nebraska , Kansas, Indiana, Illinois . North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota , Kansas, Illinois, North Dakota , Kansas , Indiana, Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

That caused some offsetting of Crop Watch conditions in the latest week, though a small decline was observed overall. Crop Watch conditions are intended as more of a visual assessment than a yield indicator. Crop Watch condition averages are not weighted due to the sample size, though USDA’s conditions are weighted by acreage estimates. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Crop Watch Conditions: June 25, 2023Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop Watch, U.S . Department of, South Dakota, Nebraska, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Nebraska, Illinois, South Dakota, Iowa, North Dakota, South, Kansas, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Up to five of the 11 Crop Watch locations received no rain over the last week, and only one tallied 1 inch or more. Each week the Crop Watch producers assign condition scores to their fields on a 1-to-5 scale. Crop Watch conditions do not incorporate yield assumptions, which will come later in the season. Eight of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields carry a condition score of 4 or better as do seven of the soybean fields, though there are no perfect 5s. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Robert Birsel Organizations: Crop, U.S . Department of Agriculture’s, North Dakota, Nebraska and, Reuters, Thomson Locations: FONTERUTOLI, Italy, United States, South Dakota , Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, North Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Nebraska and South Dakota, Ohio, Minnesota, Kansas, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County

Each week the Crop Watch producers assign condition scores to their fields on a 1-to-5 scale. Crop Watch conditions do not incorporate yield assumptions, which will come later in the season. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Crop Watch 2023 ProducersKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop, U.S . Department of Agriculture’s, South, Kansas, Indiana, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, North Dakota, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, Indiana , Illinois , Iowa, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County

Crop Watch farmers have mostly wrapped up their planting except for in North Dakota, where recent rains have already reduced the producers’ corn acreage plans. The North Dakota producer, located in the east central part of the state, has not yet started field work. This issue does not extend throughout the whole state, but the Crop Watch producer estimates roughly half the state faces his same situation. The North Dakota producer needs several sunny and windy days to prepare the fields, which could be in store. Crop Watch planting dates May 15Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Crop Watch farmers last week continued planting their corn and soybeans at a faster-than-normal pace, mirroring national progress, though field work has barely started in North Dakota. As of Monday, 15 of the 22 Crop Watch fields had been planted, most recently the ones in eastern Iowa, finished Thursday and Friday. Unplanted soybean fields include those in Kansas, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota and Ohio. Crop Watch planting is moving slower than in 2021, when 19 of the 22 fields had been planted by May 7. The final two fields, Ohio corn and North Dakota soybeans, wrapped up on May 18 that year.

Crop Watch follows 11 corn and 11 soybean fields across nine U.S. states, including two each in Iowa and Illinois. As of Tuesday, four Crop Watch fields had been planted and a fifth, the Indiana soybeans, was in progress. Since 1980, U.S. corn planting progress has matched or exceeded 10% by April 16 only five times, most recently in 2016. Some notable corn planting progress by state as of Sunday include Illinois at 10%, Iowa 7%, Kansas 17% and Missouri 30%. The five-year average corn planting is 11% for April 23 and 26% for April 30.

It is still early to get a clear picture on spring planting weather, though May is the most active month for field work, emphasizing favorable weather starting in late April. U.S. corn planting progressSoybean planting in North Dakota was also the slowest ever last year, but the national pace was only a bit behind average. The five-year April 30 average for soybean planting is 11%, close to the 10-year average of 9%. That could become important later if planting issues arise for North Dakota, which accounts for half of the spring wheat crop. Nationally, farmers plan to sow the smallest spring wheat area in 51 years, down 2% from last year.

Combined corn and soy acreage estimates are now closer to 178 million to 180 million rather than 183 million-plus two years ago, keeping primary crop acreage somewhat competitive. Fertilizer prices remain high but have eased since last fall, favorable for corn profitability prospects so long as corn prices do not significantly decline. Insurance price for spring wheat is also set during February, and half of the U.S. spring wheat crop is planted in North Dakota. The state’s spring wheat plantings ended higher than original intentions while corn and soy acres ended lower. Still, U.S. spring wheat acreage in 2022 was down from both intentions and the previous year.

Crop Watch fields were harvested within the last week, all corn, and two of them fell short of expectations, consistent with this year’s trend. The North Dakota corn ended at 2.75, down a quarter-point from expectations but above last year’s 2. The 11-field average, unweighted 2022 Crop Watch corn yield ends at 3.57, down from 3.7 a week ago. Crop Watch yield scores 2022SIGHTS ON 2023More than half of the Crop Watch producers said they have already purchased seed for 2023 and an even larger share said they had priced next year’s inputs. Most of the Crop Watch producers are in rotation-heavy areas, but acres in North Dakota and Kansas can swing the pendulum.

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